Wednesday, January 7, 2015

3 Unique and Unusual Tips to Be Financially Fit in 2015

My daughter is repeating everything I say, I'm finding more gray hair and the wonderful holiday treats are making my pants tighter and tighter. It must be time to make some New Year's resolutions so we can get our lives back on track. Whenever you read articles on becoming financially fit, you read about budgets, planning, monitoring and other boring crap. Worry not, I won't mention any of these terms. I promise. So here are 3 unique and unusual tips to be financially fit in 2015!

1) Play Dead
I'm almost 100% certain that you've never heard that as an investment strategy before. Fidelity Investments has done a study as to which accounts had done the best at Fidelity. And what they found was that the best performing accounts were often "dead" accounts. No the owners weren't dead but they were the accounts of people who forgot they had an account completely.
Unfortunately the average investor is overly emotional and typically buys high and sells low. Needless to say this is a bad investment philosophy and the chart below from Rich Bernstein shows just how terrible you are at investing!
you_suck
So what's the moral of the story? One choice is to hire an investment manager who will do better than you. The second choice leads us to our second point.
2) Tax Yourself
http://www.contrarianinsights.com/Before you stop reading which I'm sure the word tax makes you want to, just hear me out. We all hate paying taxes to Uncle Sam but we don't have a choice as they are automatically deducted from our paycheck. So here's the rub. You have to automatically transfer 5, 10 or 20% of your paycheck to an investment account every month. Have the investments automatically invest (or go to an investment advisor who will invest it for you) and then play dead. If you follow this strategy you too can be a multi-millionaire.
This brings us to the story of Mr. Theodore Johnson who started out as a driver for UPS and never made more than $14,000 a year in his life. He taxed himself to the tune of 20% and poured it back into UPS stock. By the time he was old and gray, his investment account totaled more than $70 million! So remember, it doesn't matter how much you earn, you too can become a millionaire if you play your cards right.
3) Buy Experiences, Not Products
You often hear that money can't buy happiness. However behavioral science begs to differ. Research shows that money can make us happier, but only if we spend it in particular ways. Author Michael Norton, an associate professor at Harvard Business School, describes it like this:
One of the most common things people do with their money is get stuff. But we have shown... in research that stuff isn't good for you. It doesn't make you unhappy, but it doesn't make you happy. But one thing that does make us happy is an experience.



So spend your hard earned dollars wisely.waiterDon't buy the latest handbag, car or TV. Buy an experience that you can draw on for years to come. Take a trip that will change your life for the better. Expand your worldview. Backpack around Europe with friends visiting seven countries in thirty days. Sip Sangria in aPlaça Reial in the middle of Barcelona and when you ask the waiter to take your picture, you wind up with a photo of the waiter instead and your friends in the background. Now that is worth a lifetime of memories.
http://www.contrarianinsights.com/

I hope you enjoyed my 3 unique and usual tips to be financially fit in 2015. I hope that you create some incredible memories in the New Year!

Source url :http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-wang/3-unique-and-unusual-tips_b_6403432.html?ir=India

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Why Even “Proven” Investment Strategies Usually Fail

Monopoly moneyAnyone with a computer can find a stock picking strategy that would have worked in the past. The future is another story.

Just before Christmas, an investment adviser called F-Squared Investments settled with the Securities and Exchange Commission, agreeing to pay the government $35 million. According to the SEC, F-Squared had touted to would-be clients an impressive record for its “AlphaSector” strategy of 135% cumulative returns from 2001 to 2008, compared with 28% in an S&P 500 index. Just two problems:

First, contrary to what some of F-Squared’s marketing materials said, the AlphaSector numbers for this period were based solely on a hypothetical “backtest,” and there was no real portfolio investing real dollars in the strategy. In other words, after the fact, F-Squared calculated how the strategy would have performed had someone had the foresight to implement it. Underscoring how abstract this was, the backtest record spliced together three sets of trading rules deployed (hypothetically) at different times. The third trading model, which was assumed to go into effect in 2008, was developed by someone who, the SEC noted in passing, would have been 14 years old at the beginning of the whole backtest period, in 2001. (The AlphaSector product was not launched until late 2008; its record since it went live is not in question.)

Second, even the hypothetical record was inflated, says the SEC. The F-Squared strategy was to trade in and out of exchange traded funds based on “signals” from changes in the prices of the ETFs. But F-Squared’s pre-2008 record incorrectly assumed the ETFs were bought or sold one week before those signals could possibly have flashed. The performance, says the SEC, “was based upon implementing signals to sell before price drops and to buy before price increases that had occurred a week earlier.” Not surprisingly, a more accurate version of even the hypothetical strategy would have earned only 38% cumulatively over about seven years, not 135%.
http://www.contrarianinsights.com/
Call it a woulda, shoulda—but not coulda—track record.

Steve Gandel at Fortune has been following this story for some time and has the breakdown here on how it all happened. This kind of thing is (one hopes) an extreme case. But there’s still a broader lesson to draw from this tale.

Although it’s a no-no to say that a strategy is based on a real portfolio when it isn’t, there’s not a blanket rule against citing hypothetical backtest results. In fact, backtesting is a routine part of the money management business. Stock pickers use it to develop their pet theories. Finance professors publish papers showing how this or that trading strategy could have beaten the market. Index companies use backtests to construct and market new “smart” indexes which can then be tracked by ETFs. But even when everyone follows all the rules and discloses what they are doing, there’s growing evidence that you should be skeptical of backtested strategies.

Here’s why: In any large set of data—like, say, the history of the stock market—patterns will pop out. Some might point to something real. But a lot will just be random noise, destined to disappear as more time passes. According to Duke finance professor Campbell Harvey, the more you look, the more patterns, including spurious ones, you are bound to spot. (Harvey forwarded me this XKCD comic strip that elegantly explains the basic problem.) A lot of people in finance are combing through this data now. But if they haven’t yet had to commit real money to an idea, they can test pattern after pattern after pattern until they find the one that “works.” Plus, since they already know how history worked out—which stocks won, and which lost—they have a big head start in their search.

In truth, the problem doesn’t go away entirely even when real money is involved. With thousands of professional money managers trying their hands, you’d expect many to succeed brilliantly just by fluke. (Chance predicts that about 300 out of 10,000 managers would beat the market over five consecutive years, according to a calculation by Harvey and Yan Liu.)

So how do you sort out the random from the real? If you are considering a strategy based on historical data, ask yourself three questions:

1) Is there any reason besides the record to think this should work?

Robert Novy-Marx, a finance professor at the University of Rochester, has found that some patterns that seem to predict stock prices work better when Mars and Saturn are in conjunction, and that market manias and crashes may correlate with sunspots. His point being not that these are smart trading strategies, but that you should be very, very careful with what you try to do with statistical patterns.

There’s no good reason to think Mars affects stock prices, so you can safely ignore astrology when putting together your 401(k). Likewise, if someone tells you that, say, a stock that rises in value in the first week of January will also rise in value in the third week of October, you might want to get them to explain their theory of why that would be.

2) What’s stopping other investors from doing this?

If there’s a pattern in stock prices that helps predict returns, other investors should be able to spot it. (Especially once the idea has been publicized.) And once they do, the advantage is very likely to go away. Investors will buy the stocks that ought to do well, driving up their price and reducing future returns. Or investors will sell the stocks that are supposed to do poorly, turning them into bargains.

That doesn’t mean all patterns are meaningless. For example, Yale economist Robert Shiller has found that the stock market tends to do poorly after prices become very high relative to past earnings. It may be that prices get too high in part because fund managers risk losing their jobs if they refuse to ride a bull market. Then again, the same forces that affect fund managers will probably affect you too. Will you being willing to stay out of the market and accept low returns while your friends and neighbors are boasting of double-digit gains?

And even Shiller’s pattern doesn’t work all the time—stock prices can stay high for years before they come down. Betting that you can see something that’s invisible to everyone else in the market is a risky proposition.

http://www.contrarianinsights.com/

3) Does it work well enough to justify the expense?

Lots of strategies that look good on paper fade once you figure in real-world trading costs and management fees. A mutual fund based on the AlphaSector strategy, by the way, charges about 1.6% per year for its A-class shares. That’s eight times what you’d pay for a plain-vanilla index fund, which is all but certain to deliver the market’s return, minus that sliver of costs. And there’s nothing hypothetical about that.

source url :http://time.com/money/3649581/why-proven-investment-strategies-fail/

The 10 Best Stocks to Buy for 2015

The stock market’s remarkable bull run continued in earnest in 2014, with the S&P 500 Index posting its sixth consecutive year of gains. Investors are hoping 2015 can bring similar tidings … but like always, while even matching the market is an accomplishment in and of itself, everyone will be looking for ways to beat it.
With that in mind, InvestorPlace’s panel of experts have put together their annual list of the 10 best stocks to buy for 2015.

Our annual competition asks a group of professional money managers, stock market experts and financial writers to each come up with one stock they believe will outperform the market in 2015.
The 10 Best Stocks for 2015 span a diverse range of industries, and the companies range in size from small-caps to some of the largest corporations in the world.
Throughout the year, we’ll keep you updated on how these picks perform. Each stock was chosen with a buy-and-hold mentality, so while it’s important to track their quarterly performance, these names are expected to be big winners over the period of a year, not several weeks or months.
With that said, let’s take a look at the 10 best stocks to buy now going into the new year.
ABM Industries, Inc. (ABM)
Investor: Hilary Kramer
Hilary Kramer, editor of stock market newsletters GameChangers, Breakout Stocks Under $10 and High Octane Trader, crowned ABM Industries, Inc. (ABM) as her pick in the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 contest.
ABM, shorthand for American Building Maintenance, provides — you guessed it — maintenance services for a wide range of facilities across the country.
http://www.contrarianinsights.com/While a company that derives 50% of its revenue from its Janitorial segment might not sound like a market-beater at first, Kramer thinks ABM stock is poised for a great 2015. With a 2.2% dividend yield and earnings growth accelerating recently, Hilary expects ABM stock to meet or exceed its expectations for 10% growth going forward.
Noble Corp plc (NE)
Slingshot Trader editors John Jagerson and Wade Hansen turned to the energy sector in the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 competition.
With oil prices plummeting during the past half-year, shares of contract driller Noble Corp plc (NE) have been punished as well, with shares off more than 50% in the last year.
But Jagerson and Hansen believe the dramatic selloff in NE stock is wholly unjustified. While acknowledging the risks of investing as oil prices continue to fall, Noble stock’s cheap valuation, solid liquidity and recent momentum are taken as bullish signals. They remark that:
“The upside is attractive enough to consider an entry as momentum begins to build. Unlike other firms in the industry, Noble Corp has the capital available to take advantage of future demand from producers and end-consumers.”
At the very least, Noble stock is one to watch closely in 2015.
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO)
Investor: Greg Harmon
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) had a busy 2014, as shares reached all-time highs in the wake of the record-setting Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) IPO.
But the reason expert trader and options investor Greg Harmon thinks YHOO is one of the 10 best stocks for 2015 has nothing to do with China’s e-commerce king. Yahoo’s monthly chart, Harmon writes, shows three bullish indicators for the year ahead:
“The first is the long break of an ascending triangle. The triangle was about $39 wide at its base and so looks for a move higher of $39, to about $82, on the break out higher. This triggered on a move over $44 in late October 2014.”
Ever the experienced chartist, Harmon breaks down graphics and cites two more technical indicators — the cup-and-handle pattern and the flag pattern – in his article on YHOO.
iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ)
Managing partners at FMD Capital Management, an investment advisory firm focusing primarily on funds, David and Michael Fabian see the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ) as a worthy competitor in the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 contest.
Like Noble Corp, the IEZ ETF is also a conscious play on an eventual oil price rebound. The thesis that IEZ will surge on an oil services comeback is well-supported, too. Noting that “IEZ is a traditional market-cap weighted index that tracks 53 stocks in the oil services industry,” the ETF gurus think the market-cap weighting methodology works in investors’ favor:
“This slant towards larger and more established companies within the industry makes IEZ more attractive than other equal-weighted ETF alternatives. In addition, these larger companies may benefit from merger and acquisition activity within the energy services industry as smaller firms look to survive or consolidate their assets.”
If oil prices rebound, IEZ looks to be “the best broad play for an oil recovery next year.”
Google Inc (GOOG)
Investor: Paul R. La Monica
CNNMoney Assistant Managing Editor Paul R. La Monica goes mainstream and picks search engine giant Google Inc (GOOG) for his entry on the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 list.
But in “going mainstream,” La Monica actually makes a somewhat contrarian pick, especially considering the fact that GOOG stock underperformed pretty much all of its major competitors in 2014: Apple Inc. (AAPL), Facebook Inc (FB), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Baidu Inc (ADR) (BIDU), and Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) all fared better last year.
For La Monica, Google’s valuation looks too cheap to ignore:
“I couldn’t pass up on Google. The stock now trades for just 17 times 2015 earnings estimates. Its P/E is pretty much in line with its expected earnings growth rate.”
Acknowledging that the Motorola Mobility acquisition was a complete failure, he reminds us that Google’s M&A track record is exceptional on the whole: YouTube, DoubleClick and Android have all done big things for Google.
Ambarella Inc (AMBA)
Investor: Jon Markman
Jon Markman, editor of the Trader’s Advantage and CounterPoint Options newsletters, chose little-known chipmaker Ambarella Inc (AMBA) as his candidate in the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 competition.
Best-known as the supplier of chips for GoPro Inc (GPRO), the wearable camera-maker whose products have become a pop-culture phenomenon, Markman explains that AMBA isn’t just some one-off play on GoPro’s success (although GPRO does account for more than 25% of Ambarella’s revenue):
“About 45% of Ambarella’s business is in the Internet-connected security market … Ambarella is counting on explosive growth from customers such as Flir Systems (FLIR), which announced 31 new IP security camera models this year, all with Ambarella chips inside.”
With its hands in the television broadcast market as well, AMBA stock is a rarity in that it’s a fairly well-diversified growth company leading the way in several vertical markets.
Although it tacked on more than 50% in 2014, if Ambarella’s 43% revenue growth last quarter is any indication of things to come, AMBA stock could still have its best days ahead of it in 2015.
Prospect Capital Corporation (PSEC)
Investor: Charles Sizemore
Charles Sizemore, chief investment officer of investment firm Sizemore Capital Management, taps Prospect Capital Corporation (PSEC) as his pick in the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 competition.
Unfortunately for his competitors, Sizemore has an enviable track record: he’s a two-time champion, taking the gold for best stock pick in both 2011 and 2013. (He came in last in 2014, but if the every-other-year pattern holds up, he looks like a shoo-in this year).

For 2015, Sizemore notes that current stock market valuations appear stretched, and he expects the mantra “cash is king” to ring especially true for markets.
Prospect Capital Corporation, which invests in senior loans but also provides capital for some high-risk M&A activity, might seem like a curious play in that environment. But with a 12.1% dividend yield and a recent spree of insider buying, Sizemore thinks Prospect Capital could deliver total returns of 40% or more in 2015.
Pizza Inn Holdings (PZZI)
Investor: Rick Rouse
Rick Rouse, editor of Momentum Options and Momentum Stocks Weekly, is a big fan of Pizza Inn Holdings Inc (PZZI), which he nominated as his pick in the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 competition.
This micro-cap company isn’t for the conservative investor. Like the rapid pizza-making method that Pizza Inn employs, if investors don’t time this stock right they could get severely burned.
But Rouse quickly summarizes the appeal of Pizza Inn Holdings, which has a brand of restaurants called Pie Five:
“Pie Five’s goal is to have you stuffing your face with the perfect pie in less than five minutes. If you were wondering how Pie Five can cook a pizza in under two minutes, it’s due to their patented ovens. They heat up to 700 degrees and can bake a pie in one minute and 45 seconds.
It essentially feels like the Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) of pizza shops.”
The real test for PZZI this year will be to see if it can imitate CMG stock’s explosive returns. Chipotle shares are up more than 650% in the last five years alone.
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Investor: Louis Navellier
Louis Navellier — an experienced investor, go-to Wall Street portfolio manager, and editor of the Blue Chip Growth and Emerging Growth stock market newsletters — elected Apple Inc. (AAPL) as his entrant in the 10 Best Stocks for 2015 competition.
Like Google, AAPL stock is hardly an obscure pick to outperform the markets in 2015. It’s the largest company in the entire world, after all, and Apple stock was able to soar yet again in 2014 with help from a 7-for-1 stock split and the blowout success of the iPhone 6 release.
But the main case Navellier makes for AAPL stock has nothing to do with the iPhone. Or the iPad. Or the iPod, for that matter:
“Apple has hiked up its dividend twice in the past two years — a 24% increase to bring AAPL stock to a healthy 1.6% dividend yield. And with a payout ratio of 24.3%, Apple has a healthy cushion for future dividend increases.”
In other words, not only is AAPL still a growth stock despite being the largest company in the world, Apple’s a growth stock with a growing dividend. But the fairy tale doesn’t end there:
“Apple also recently increased its stock buyback program to a whopping $90 billion. In the last quarter alone, Apple bought back $17 billion of its stock. Between dividend payments and share repurchases, Apple expects to return $130 billion to shareholders by the end of 2015.”
Navellier believes, and not without justification, that returning this comically large sum of money to shareholders could propel AAPL to new heights in 2015.
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)
Investor: Mike Turner
Mike Turner, a premier authority in rule-based trading and time-cycle-based forecasting, is also the editor of investment newsletters Signal Investor and Turner Analytics. Looking through a bullish lens for 2015, Turner expects stock market returns in the range of 11% and 16% this year.
With the price of crude oil currently below $60, Turner also sees the $6.7 billion trucking and logistics company Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) significantly outperforming the market this year. Over the last three years, ODFL stock has rocketed more than 180% as it reaped the rewards of an expanding economy.
But here’s the icing on the cake:
http://www.contrarianinsights.com/

“The rise in ODFL’s price over the past three years has been accomplished with crude oil in the $80 to $100-plus range. The current move into the low $60s will be a huge benefit for ODFL and other truckers. And should the price of crude oil rise, it will not have a great impact on its stock price, as Old Dominion will be able to pass along a fuel surcharge to their customers.”
It may not be the sexiest of the 10 Best Stocks for 2015, but don’t be surprised if ODFL beats out higher-profile names to boast the highest returns on this list.

Source url:http://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-10-best-stocks-to-buy-for-2015-cm429381